A recent report by African Narratives, a Pan-African non-profit research organization, highlights alarming developments in Ethiopia under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration. The findings indicate that his policies have had a profound effect on the nation’s security, stability, unity, and the overall political, economic, and social landscape. Titled “Government Failure and Civil War: The Conflict in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region,” the study warns that Ethiopia is at a pivotal moment, with the ongoing strife in the Amhara region threatening national cohesion and risking the potential disintegration of the country.
The report underscores that Ethiopia is at a crucial juncture, where the future hinges on the various factions’ capacity to resolve their conflicts and establish solutions that promote national unity and stability. It stresses the importance of implementing “prudent policies that consider historical contexts and the intricate sensitivities tied to Ethiopia’s vast ethnic diversity.”
African Narratives is committed to conducting thorough, evidence-based research, policy analysis, and advocacy to elevate genuine African voices and viewpoints. Their focus encompasses vital areas such as economic development, governance, security, and resource management, with the objective of shaping policy decisions on both continental and global stages.
Ethiopia has been facing a series of internal crises in recent years, largely revolving around the complexities of its ethnic diversity. These issues are intensified by external tensions with neighboring nations, which arise from what the analysis identifies as the ruling government’s efforts in Addis Ababa to enhance its regional influence and authority. Consequently, various stakeholders have expressed concerns, perceiving the policies emanating from Addis Ababa as aggressive and potentially detrimental to the security and stability of the region.
The ongoing conflict in the Amhara region, particularly between the Fano militia and the government, is regarded as equally perilous as the situation in Tigray. This conflict is seen as a direct consequence of the governing strategies employed by Addis Ababa. According to the African Narratives study, Ethiopia has witnessed considerable political and security turmoil during Abiy Ahmed’s administration, leading to an increase in armed confrontations between the federal government and numerous militant factions throughout the nation.
Previously, the Fano militias allied with the federal forces in the Tigray conflict against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). They also engaged in skirmishes with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and participated in Ethiopia’s disputes with Sudan over the contested Al-Fashaqa region. However, the Fano has now shifted its stance against the state, presenting a formidable challenge to national stability. This transformation occurs in the context of Abiy Ahmed’s governance, which has intensified Ethiopia’s internal crises, aggravated both domestic and international conflicts, and further undermined an already precarious security environment. The ramifications of this situation extend beyond Ethiopia, impacting the broader stability of the Horn of Africa.
The ongoing insurrection in the Amhara region illustrates the intricate dynamics between this prominent ethnic group, which constitutes Ethiopia’s second-largest demographic, and the various ruling administrations that have been in power since 1991. Following the Tigray War, the Fano militia re-emerged as a formidable entity, bolstered by enhanced military capabilities and increased personnel due to its collaboration with the central government. A significant aspect of its rising influence was the incorporation of the Amhara Special Forces, which opted not to integrate into the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF).
In April 2023, the Ethiopian federal government announced its intention to disband the Amhara Special Forces and incorporate them into the federal military, a strategy aimed at centralizing the nation’s military and security framework. This decision, however, faced vehement opposition from the Fano militia, which interpreted it as a deliberate effort by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to undermine the Amhara community. The ensuing turmoil enabled Fano to establish territorial dominance while obstructing the movements of the federal army, thereby exacerbating the conflict.
The analysis further underscores the prevailing mistrust between Fano and the federal government, despite their previous collaboration during the Tigray War. The abrupt withdrawal of federal troops, executed without prior consultation with regional leaders, left the Amhara forces exposed to potential counterattacks from the TPLF, thereby intensifying the existing distrust. Additionally, Amhara factions expressed concerns that the federal government might compel them to relinquish strategically significant territories, such as Welkait and Raya, which they had secured during the conflict against Tigray.
Abiy Ahmed’s signing of the Pretoria peace agreement with the TPLF in November 2022 occurred without any representation from the Amhara, despite their significant involvement in the conflict. The study indicates that this exclusion, reportedly at Abiy’s request, marked a pivotal moment in the dynamics of their relationship, transforming Fano from a crucial ally into a direct opponent.
Since taking office in April 2018, Abiy Ahmed initially presented himself as a leader committed to reform and modernization. However, over time, his image has deteriorated, with many now viewing him as an unreliable figure who often fails to uphold international obligations. The analysis suggests that Abiy Ahmed’s policies have intensified both internal and external crises in Ethiopia, resulting in political instability, escalating ethnic strife, and economic downturn.
Although Abiy Ahmed made early efforts to address ethnic tensions, the situation has deteriorated further during his tenure. The country’s complex ethnic landscape has continued to present significant governance challenges, and attempts to shift from an ethnic federalism model to a more centralized governance structure have largely been unsuccessful. This failure has contributed to the outbreak of the 2020 Tigray War and the ongoing conflict with the Amhara region.
Under the leadership of Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia has experienced persistent conflicts that have severely depleted national resources, leading to significant economic distress. The ongoing hostilities in Tigray and Amhara have not only caused extensive damage to critical infrastructure but have also resulted in a tragic loss of life and the displacement of millions. As a consequence, the Ethiopian economy has faced considerable challenges, with the protracted conflict in Amhara further obstructing any prospects for economic recovery and exacerbating the nation’s debt crisis.
The analysis also delves into Ethiopia’s external challenges, which include the contentious Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiations with Egypt, the Al-Fashqa border conflict with Sudan, and the agreement concerning the Somaliland port. These issues have strained Ethiopia’s relationships with neighboring nations and global powers, contributing to the country’s increasing isolation on the international front.
The African Narratives study outlines three potential future scenarios for Ethiopia: a military intervention, a diplomatic resolution, and a scenario involving the victory of Fano leading to the regime’s downfall. The study warns that if Abiy Ahmed continues with his current policies, the repercussions could be dire. It emphasizes the necessity for the government to shift away from its confrontational stance and to recognize the intricate internal dynamics of Ethiopia; otherwise, the nation risks remaining ensnared in a cycle of conflict and instability.
